Chinas exports to United States tick up as traders try to beat tariffs

Chinas exports to United States tick up as traders try to beat tariffs

"We believe front-loading activity continued in October and will extend into the last two months of 2018 as exporters hurry their shipments in anticipation of higher tariff rates in 2019", Nomura said.

China's exports rose 15.6 per cent last month from a year earlier, data showed yesterday, picking up from September's 14.5 per cent and beating analysts' forecasts for a modest slowdown to 11 per cent.

Investment bank ANZ said Thursday that it expects the real difficulties to start after the United States tariffs on the $200 billion of Chinese goods rise to 25% at the end of the year.

Ben Hackett of the Hackett Associates made a similar prediction in August, expecting tariffs to ultimately lead to falling import levels in the USA but not until 2019.

Washington and Beijing slapped additional tariffs on each other's goods on September 24 and the US has pledged to sharply raise the rate from 10 percent to 25 percent at the turn of the year.

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USA import volumes began soaring this summer, and data continue to show no signs of a slowdown in trade flows from China to the U.S.

China's exports to the U.S. rose 13.2 per cent from a year earlier in October.

For trade with all countries, China's surplus was around $34 billion for October, compared with forecasts of $35 billion and September's $31.69 billion.

US President Donald Trump has said he's prepared to expand the tariffs to effectively cover all Chinese exports to the United States, which topped $500 billion past year. They said a meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump this month in Argentina is unlikely to produce positive results. Washington, Europe and other trading partners complain plans such as "Made in China 2025", which calls for creating Chinese global champions in artificial intelligence, robotics and other fields, violate Beijing's market-opening obligations. Some 3,600 companies from 152 countries are taking part in the five-day event. Beijing agreed in May to narrow its trade gap with the United States by purchasing more American soybeans, natural gas and other exports. United States orders for Chinese goods at the latest Canton fair dropped 30.3 per cent from a year earlier by value, as higher USA tariffs made goods from batteries to farm tractors more expensive. But Chinese leaders scrapped that deal after Trump's first tariff hikes hit. "Strong export growth may not last very long", said Pang.

Liu Liu, analyst at Chinese investment banking firm CICC, said the risk of slowing export growth was higher now than before, based on the latest manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI).

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