Non-OPEC countries have fulfilled agreement on output cut by 118% thanks to Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its report for September. The IEA said that the impact of Hurricane Harvey could drive refined product stockpiles below the five-year average by next month's report.
The agency said global oil supply fell by 720,000 bpd last month vs. July, to 97.7 million bpd, on unrest in Libya and disruptions from Hurricane Harvey in the U.S. The report also said that OPEC output fell by 210,000 barrels, the first decline in five months.
"Based on recent bets made by investors, expectations are that markets are tightening and that prices will rise, albeit very modestly", the IEA said. Oil production also significantly fell in Mexico - by 170,000 barrels per day instead of 100,000 barrels per day under the agreement.
Robust demand in industrialised countries was a key factor behind global demand growing 2.3 million bpd in the second quarter, the highest quarterly year-on-year rise since mid-2015.
Industry and government oil products stocks stood at 1,796.3 million barrels at in July in the 34 countries that make up the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Compliance levels in August hit 82 per cent compared with 75 per cent.
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"Depending on the pace of recovery for the United States refining industry post-(Hurricane) Harvey, very soon OECD product stocks could fall to, or even below, the five-year level", added the IEA. For 2018 the IEA is forecasting growth of 1.4 million barrels a day (1.4%).
Hurricane Harvey, which raged through Texas and parts of Louisiana late in August, forced the shutdown of about a quarter of US refining capacity as well as ports, pipelines and offshore platforms.
For this year, the IEA sees the need for OPEC crude at 32.7 million bpd, in line with the current production.
But with oil demand perking up as well as hurricanes and regular summer maintenance knocking out some production, the IEA said it has seen some of that glut disappear. As of 2:00 p.m. EDT Tuesday, the government said that four refineries in the Gulf Coast were still closed because of issues associated with Harvey, representing about 4 percent of the total USA refining capacity.
